The doomsayers can breathe easy now. Indian democracy is not dying. It is alive and well. And it’s kicking, both literally and metaphorically. It just delivered a nasty kick to the arrogance of power. It also hinted at its lack of confidence in hodge-podge politics.
Will the opposition in India survive to fight another electoral battle? Is one-party hegemony in the interest of democracy? These were the big questions before the general elections 2024. India has provided the answer. It has not denied the BJP-led NDA chance of another stint in power, but it has done so with a subtle message: don’t let go of forbearance. Democracy needs balance and tolerance.
The BJP had set an ambitious target for itself and the NDA — 370 and 400 plus, respectively. Most exit polls, interestingly, predicted similar numbers, give and take a few seats. Most of them were smitten by the party’s aura of invincibility, particularly after the 2019 elections. What they missed in their assessment was the absence of something similar to the Pulwama factor in 2024.
The Pulwama attack offered a national security narrative to the BJP on a platter in 2019. Without it, the party would have found the election much tougher despite playing the Hindutva card. The Ram mandir inauguration this time was expected to give the party a similar boost as Pulwama, but as the results in Uttar Pradesh suggest, national security is a much stronger concern than religious identity for people. And it’s possible the electoral dividend from the politics of religion is getting smaller.
For the secular block, particularly the Congress, a repeat of 2014 and 2019 would have meant loss of relevance in national polity. The numbers that emerged today rule out the possibility. The Congress, which secured just 52 seats in 2019 elections and didn’t even qualify for the Leader of the Opposition post, has redeemed itself with close to 100 seats (the final tally is yet to come). It can now expect to arrest its shrinking footprint on the country’s electoral map. The INDIA block, the secular formation, has far outperformed the UPA of 2019 with 230 seats. The former had managed 91 in 2019. If the INDIA grouping plays smart and BJP’s partners ditch it, the game can get very interesting.
It is obvious by now that the BJP has been overdependent on Prime Minister Modi as its vote magnet. As the party’s mascot, Modi has been the unique selling proposition for the BJP alright, but his appreciable efforts in every campaign appears just not enough without adequate backing from other party leaders and the organisation. Also, the BJP’s strategy to engineer defections from rivals may be backfiring. While the apparent intent of this strategy is to rattle the opposition by introducing instability in their ranks, it could actually be introducing confusion in the BJP ranks more. The new imports have to be accommodated in the right position. At times they may be thrust upon resentful party workers.
A lot of analysis would follow in the subsequent days as more details emerge. But rest assured, people are not as foolish as the political class assumes them to be. Indian democracy is safe with them.
(By arrangement with Perspective Bytes)
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