Should Indian families have at least three children? Mohan Bhagwat, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief, recently stressed on it while drawing attention to the fact that if the fertility rate dips below the current 2.1 it could lead to a demographic disaster. He has a valid point. Forget the mischievous Muslim-centric debate triggered by his statement, the argument he offers is backed by population science.
Fertility rate, according to the United Nations, is the number of children women must have to replace one generation with the next. It says the replacement rate of 2.1 is ideal, but it can have regional variations depending on how countries are placed on social and economic parameters. If it goes below the number then the aging population would outnumber the young. Such a situation would have grave consequences. Bhagwat said it entailed the risk of extinction of societies. A society could gradually fade away on its own without external intervention.
So far so good. But the RSS chief possibly has not been attentive to one critical factor: the economic reality. Fewer children are not a matter of choice but one of compulsion for many Indians. Unstable jobs, unremunerative farm activities, high risk involved in entrepreneurship and the consequent financial insecurity from all make having more children a difficult proposition. Bringing them up, given the high cost of education, health and other financial commitments it entails, is expensive and requires a steady source of reasonable income. Even both couples taking up jobs don’t find it easy to bring up more than one child.
Education of women, their entry into jobs, career concerns and financial independence have altered the perception of family life. Having children early and settling into a conventional married life is no longer the priority, professional career growth is. Late marriages have become the norm and the decision to have a child is often delayed till the mid-30s, when the professional life is more settled. It’s often the case with both spouses.
We live in times when the institution of marriage is under severe strain. The number of people preferring to stay unmarried is on the rise as are the cases of divorce. Individualistic attitude, quest for personal space and search for compatibility are making the younger population apprehensive of a lifelong commitment. Children, forget the number of them, are not even a consideration in such a scenario.
Decline in fertility is rate is not specific to India, it’s a problem almost the entire global north is grappling with. According to the United Nations, global fertility will be on the decline for the rest of the century and reach 1.8 – below replacement level – by 2100.
The RSS chief may be correct in his diagnosis of a problem but the prescription loses sight of the reality on the ground.
(By arrangements with Perspective Bytes)
