CORONA DIARIES 15: Mankind’s Resilience On Test, But It Has Been There Before

In the end, there is hope. Mankind has suffered worse and survived. There is no reason why it won’t this time.

Covid-19, as evidence suggests, maybe a midget among pandemics the world has experienced so far. Bubonic plague of the mid-14th century claimed more than 130 million people across Europe, Asia and Africa; cholera, appearing in waves, killed millions between the closing decades of the 19th century and the initial ones of the 20th century; Spanish flu around 50 million during 1918-20; Asian flu of 1956-58 around two million; and AIDS has already claimed many millions. There have been other killer diseases of varying degrees of severity throughout history. We have endured all. Each of these has armed us with experience to build responses to the next outbreak with certain cool-headedness.

And there’s science. It is not so much a blind war against a contourless enemy as in earlier centuries. Thanks to advancement in science, we are placed to understand the adversary better than ever. We may not have scored decisive victories against diseases–AIDS still afflicts thousands and kills hundreds; flu keeps coming back; Ebola has not gone away–but we are certainly more prepared. Viruses and other pathogens keep mutating in unpredictable ways.Thus we can only get ambushed and play catch-up. Before we strategise our defence, they might have moved one or several steps ahead. Yet science has helped us control the biggies such as small pox, cholera, leprosy, polio and tuberculosis. It has helped neuter the killer potential of some.

With virologists furiously at work across the globe, one can expect a vaccine soon. Before that happens and COVID-19 becomes memory, a painful one though, we need to ponder where we went wrong and how could we have done better. We should be aware that this won’t be the last pandemic in our interconnected world or the most severe. Pathogens are furiously at work too. One never knows when they are going to strike next and with what force. So it is better we learnt our lessons fast.

Hope is fine, but it should be tempered with reality check.

PREPAREDNESS PAYS

Yes, no preparation is enough for a Tsunami or a super cyclone or a deadly virus on a murderous mission. They usually come unannounced. Even when their arrival is predicted, they surprise all with their sheer ferocity and destructive sweep. Yet we know from experience that states or countries with efficient, well-greased systems respond better to such situations. Those with robust physical or administrative infrastructure cope with calamities with more composure.

Among states Odisha has done rather well because it is well-acquainted with the emergency drill. Perhaps it has to do something with recurring cyclones which keep the response system in the alert mode all the time. The system can operate with certain nimbleness backed by uncluttered decision- making, an advantage not many states have. However, here’s a word of caution: the corona nightmare is still unfolding. We are not testing enough, so we may not be aware of the magnitude of the problem yet. It’s too early to judge whether our response has been adequate.

Still the basic point that an efficient system produces a better response to unforeseen situations holds valid.

REALITY CHECK FOR HEALTHCARE

When COVID-19 struck, it became obvious to all that the healthcare system across the country is too fragile to handle the additional pressure COVID-19 might create. We were hopelessly short of life-saving facilities. There were, according to experts, around 48,000 ventilators and 1,00,000 ICU beds in the country. They were barely coping with the existing demand when they were confronted with a large number of corona cases. Thank God it is not a deluge yet. But if it turns so, a possibility predicted by many, we might be in serious trouble.

Add to it the general shortage of doctors-India has a doctor-population ratio of 1:1456 while WHO recommends 1:1000, and the distribution is grossly uneven among states-and the new shortage due to doctors catching the corona infection. Perhaps we have been complacent about healthcare. India ranks among countries at the bottom in terms of the GDP to healthcare spend ratio. A measly 1.5 per cent of our GDP, still some distance from 2.5 per cent promised in the National Health Policy. The implication shows in our inadequacies in a crisis. We need to do better.

CHILDREN OF A LESSER GOD

Migrant labourers are usually nobody’s problem. In normal times, governments treat them with certain indifference. Their whereabouts once they move out of the state, their living conditions and more basic, their numbers largely stay under the government radar. In a situation such as the present one the casualness stands exposed. These people stand out like a sore thumb amid all efforts at crisis management. All governments across the country stand guilty of leaving them to fend for themselves in alien lands.

It is not difficult to find why. They are politically insignificant.

Equally guilty are people in higher class brackets who treat the stranded mass of the poor with great disdain. The elements of class outrage and insensitivity were in evidence when thousands of them thronged bus depots or railway stations in a desperate move to get back home. Weeks later, the attitude is still in evidence when the migrants try to reach home in boats or cycles or on foot.

Do we shrink as human beings in difficult times? Introspection is in order here.