Bhubaneswar: While India Meteorological Department (IMD) termed the reports about Sitrang as a rumour and advised people to stay away from it, its DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Wednesday said that there is no forecast for a cyclone in the next 7 days and no threat for Odisha.
“A cyclonic circulation formed over the north Andaman Sea yesterday. The system will move west-northwestwards and will weaken gradually. There is a likelihood of formation of another similar system around October 17-18,” he told a local channel.
He further said that the fresh system is likely to move west-northwestward towards the southern part of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. “As per our analysis, there are no chances of intensification of the system into a cyclone,” he said.
Mohapatra said a forecast made for seven days in advance is more reliable and accurate and IMD is known for its ‘pinpoint’ accuracy in cyclone prediction. “The prediction is made after analysing several models, which may keep changing. The US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) no longer indicates cyclone in the Bay of Bengal,” he stressed.
It is pertinent to mention here that the IMD has predicted all cyclones correctly within a 45-kilometre error limit since 2013.
Also Read: Specific Forecast On Cyclone Cannot Be Made 7 Days In Advance, IMD Clarifies On ‘Sitrang’ Reports
“Therefore, I request you not to believe in rumours and predictions of any individual agency or model. Please have faith in the prediction of the already established tools and technology of the IMD,” he concluded.
Notably, the US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) on Monday indicated the possibility of a supercyclone in the Bay of Bengal between October 18 and October 25. “A depression is likely to form on October 17, which is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 18,” weather expert Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on weather and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada, was quoted as saying by Business Standard. He also noted that the cyclone is expected to be named ‘Sitrang’.
The cyclone may make its landfall anywhere between Andhra Pradesh and Bangladesh, Palash said, adding that the system may become a supercyclone. Its wind speed can be similar to that of Cyclone Amphan, he added.
Also Read: Cyclone Likely In Bay By Oct 25? Check What IMD & Odisha Weather Expert Have To Say
Former Director of the Regional Meteorological Science Centre here Sarat Sahu told Odisha Bytes that predictions are not made based on one weather model. “Anything concrete can be said about the possibility of a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal mid-month once a few other models predict the same and only after October 17,” he added.
Odisha faces severe cyclonic storms in October and November, sometimes even till December 15. This two-and-a-half month is considered the “cyclone season” in the state.
