Specific Forecast On Cyclone Cannot Be Made 7 Days In Advance, IMD Clarifies On ‘Sitrang’ Reports

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By OB Bureau
cyclone in odisha

Bhubaneswar: Amid reports about the possibility of a supercyclone in the Bay of Bengal between October 18 and October 25, the regional centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Bhubaneswar on Wednesday clarified that scientifically specific weather forecast cannot be made seven days in advance.

The IMD has issued no forecast regarding a cyclone.

“We are working round the clock to provide accurate information related to the latest weather conditions. Stay away from rumours,” the Met office tweeted.

It is pertinent to mention here that the US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) indicated the possibility of a supercyclone in the Bay of Bengal between October 18 and October 25.

Also Read: Cyclone Likely In Bay By Oct 25? Check What IMD & Odisha Weather Expert Have To Say

Speaking to the media, IMD scientist Umashankar Das said that a forecast about a fresh cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days was issued last Thursday, but the exact date and area where it will develop have not been predicted yet. “An update on the system will be issued on October 14. As of now, the IMD has not issued information regarding any cyclone,” Das said.

Adding to it, Joint Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) also asked people not to spread any information that creates panic among the citizens. He further said that IMD shall inform once it makes a certain forecast regarding the possibility of a cyclone.

Also read: Will There Be A Cyclone In Odisha This Month? Check What IMD Has To Say

The IMD in its October 6 North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis, mentioned a low probability of further intensification of the fresh cyclonic circulation, which is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal in the second half of this month (October 14 to October 20).

At the cyclone season preparedness meeting chaired by Chief Secretary Suresh Mahapatra on Monday, IMD Regional Director HR Biswas informed that there is no cyclone forecast for Odisha in the next 15 days even as weather conditions were favourable for the same.

Also read: Odisha Chief Secy Directs Officials To Remain Alert For Cyclone Season Ahead

Former Met Director Sarat Sahu had told Odisha Bytes that predictions are not made based on one weather model. “Anything concrete can be said about the possibility of a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal mid-month once a few other models predict the same and only after October 17,” he added.

Since 2013, the IMD has predicted all cyclones correctly within a 45-kilometre error limit.

 

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OB Bureau
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