Bhubaneswar: The low-pressure over east Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has become well marked, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Sunday.
“It is likely to continue to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 25. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards towards Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coast during the subsequent 2 days,” it added.
Though the weather agency has made no forecast on further intensification of the system, the IMD GEFS is indicating nearly west-northwestwards movement and intensification into depression(/deep depression (DD) over southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining east EIO on November 24 and cyclonic storm on November 26 over southwest Bay of Bengal close to Sri Lanka coast. Thereafter, the model is indicating northeastwards recurvature towards Myanmar-Sri Lanka coasts.
Similar to IMD GFS, NCEP is also indicating initial west-northwestwards movement till November 27 and northeastwards recurvature thereafter towards Myanmar-Sri Lanka coasts.
According to ECMWF, a low-pressure area is likely to form over east EIO & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on November 24 with nearly westwards movement till November 26. Thereafter, it is likely to move northnorthwestwards with marginal intensification becoming depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal on November 28. Thereafter, it is indicating weakening trend and also crossing over Andhra Pradesh coast on November 30.
Similarly, NCUM is indicating a low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal on November 24, depression over the same region on November 26 before crossing over Tamil Nadu coast near Puducherry around November 28.
Thus, there is large variation among various models with respect to track and intensification. Some of the models are indicating steering of system in northeastwards direction under the influence of trough in westerlies from November 28 onwards.
“Intense Observation Phase may be declared for East coast of Sri Lanka during November 25-27, Tamil Nadu coast during November 24-28. A continuous watch is being maintained for further intensification and movement of system towards Tamil Nadu – Sri Lanka coasts,” it added.
The MeT office has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during November 25-28 and isolated heavy rainfall on November 29. Isolated heavy rainfall may also occur in Nicobar Islands on November 24, Kerala & Mahe during November 26-29 and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam & Rayalaseema during November 27- 29.
Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholl said that area of low pressure in the southeast Bay of Bengal will become a depression over the next couple of days then can become cyclonic storm before impacting India late next week. “Model spread on track is increasing so may need to monitor for impacts farther north in eastern India,” he posted on X.
According to North Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, the Indo-Pacific Tropical Cyclone Warning Center is monitoring the system in the southern Bay of Bengal for potential development that could occur this weekend into early next week. This system has a medium (50%) chance of cyclone formation in the next 5 days, it added.
