Bhubaneswar: Amid reports of a possible cyclone over Bay of Bengal next month, Director-General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Friday said that a low pressure area may form over eastcentral Bay of Bengal in the first week of October with low probability of intensifying into a depression.
“The system may move in west-northwest direction but it is too early to predict when it will reach the coast and its likely impact. So far, the IMD has made no cyclone prediction and no alert has been issued for Odisha or any other states. A clearer picture will emerge only after formation of the cyclonic circulation at the end of September and the subsequent low pressure area,” he said.
While stating that October to December period is considered the “cyclone season” in Odisha, Mohapatra advised people not to believe in rumours and instead follow the information being shared by the IMD. “We are keeping a watch on the possible system brewing in the Bay of Bengal and further information will be shared as and when a clearer picture emerges,” he added.
According to the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis, issued by IMD on Thursday, a low pressure area may form over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining area during first half of week 2 (29.09.2023-05.10.2023) but with a low probability of cyclogenesis over the same region.
While a couple of weather models suggest that a cyclonic storm may develop over the Bay of Bengal during the first week of October, the IMD has made no prediction in this regard so far. “ECMWF and NCUM models are showing the formation of low pressure area over central BoB with intensification into depression around September 28 and move further west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts during first half of week 2. The NCEP GFS model forecasts indicate that a low pressure area would form over eastcentral-southeast BoB and adjoining Andaman Sea around September 29 which is likely to move west-northwestward and intensify further into a depression over Central BoB and subsequently into a cyclonic storm over westcentral BoB during next 3- 4 days. However, IMD GFS model is not indicating any cyclogenesis over BoB during week 1 (22.09.2023-28.09.2023).”
Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also made similar predictions. “Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October,” he posted on X.
Conditions can become conducive for low & perhaps a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal late next week or during the 1st week of October. pic.twitter.com/AbWY04Ocsr
— Jason Nicholls 💙 (@jnmet) September 21, 2023
If this system develops into a cyclone, it will be called Tej, a name given by India.
