Lucknow: Thousands could die within days in Uttar Pradesh due to severe heatwave, a new study has revealed.
The study that portrays UP as India’s deadliest hotspot for heat-related fatalities, has estimated that 8,056 people could die in just five days.
This comes at a time when the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heatwave like conditions across several states in central India, including UP.
The figures are based on estimates of the fatalities during the 2024 heatwave, the year that broke all heat records, emerging as the hottest year on the planet since records began, as reported by India Today.
The toll of 8,056 deaths in UP are more than double the projected toll in Bihar, the second most affected state, which could see around 3,615 deaths.
The states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan follow right behind, with projected tolls of 2,964 and 2,664 respectively.
The study used mortality data, population estimates and historical climate patterns to map how extreme heat could impact districts across India.
The team of researchers also estimated a nationwide number. They found that even a single day of dangerous heat could trigger nearly 3,400 excess deaths nationwide.
A five-day heatwave could cause up to 30,000 deaths across the country, the study has revealed.
But, why has UP gone up to the top of the chart? This is due to a a brutal combination. The most populous state in the country has a high baseline number of daily deaths under normal conditions, and regularly endures extreme summer temperatures.
This means that when heat engulfs a state of this size and density, even a modest increase in heat-related risk quickly adds up to thousands of preventable deaths.
According to the study, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat could together account for more than 60% of India’s projected heatwave mortality burden, even though these five states make up only about 43% of the country’s population.
The heat-related risk across UP is not spread evenly either. Several UP districts analysed in the study ranked among India’s most heat-vulnerable.
The list included known locations like Prayagraj, Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar, Azamgarh, Agra and Bareilly; all of which could each record more than 180 excess deaths during a single five-day heatwave.
Only a few districts elsewhere in India, including Ahmedabad, Jaipur and Surat, are projected to see higher numbers.
The higher risk for large urban centres and the densely packed districts spread across the Indo-Gangetic plains has been highlighted in the study.
Researchers have cautioned that these figures may actually undercount the actual death toll, meaning the estimates are a low figure and more people could actually face fatal consequences of extreme heat in UP.
Rural populations that make up a large share of UP and are often exposed to outdoor heat for longer hours, may face even greater risks than the numbers suggest, as the study drew heat-mortality relationships from city data.
The findings are an urgent callvto action, with climate change pushing temperatures to new extremes each year.
The options available to policymakers are few but effective; early-warning systems, stronger healthcare preparedness and district-level heat action plans.
