In the beginning, there was the disease. Anyone who bothered to follow its progress knew it was going to be big, of global proportion, in terms of spread, lives claimed and scale of economic devastation.
Then we had experts capturing it on graph sheets. Soon, before us there were geological formations such as hills, mountains and plateaus. Experts spoke about peaks and plateaus, and about curves that were, or ought to be, flattened. Many of them made predictions, both bleak and blithe, with words, logic and conviction difficult to overlook. If you have been watching television seriously, you would know that in India we have flattened the curve at least a couple of times already. On the economy, while all accept that 2020 is going to be a bad year, some experts have been predicting dramatic recoveries. Like graph sheets in case of COVID-19, they have prepared shapes of recovery–V-shaped, U-shaped and so on.
Five months and a zillion expert analyses and views on, we are not an inch wiser. The only fact about the disease we know with certainty that it is big, both in terms of spread, deaths and economic devastation. The point of this article is not to find fault with experts, people with useful specialised knowledge, but to raise a few questions on the idea of predictions, particularly the kind we find in the media on big occasions such as elections and crises.
‘Future Babble’, a scholarly book by Dan Gardner which takes a deep dive into why expert predictions are usually way off the mark and why we still believe them, makes some interesting observations backed by studies.
In 2007, the jacket of the book says, experts said it would be smooth-sailing in 2008; then came the global financial hurricane. In 2008, as oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. This is how it always goes. In the 1960s, experts said the Soviet economy would be bigger than the American economy by 1997; in 1997 the Soviet Union did not exist. In 1911, experts said there would be no major wars; we know how it turned out.
Let’s face it, experts are about as accurate as dirt-throwing monkeys, it continues, and yet every day we ask them to predict the future…Inside the book, Gardner mentions a study by a magazine, which compared the predictions of American pundits with a chimpanzee named Chippy, who made guesses by choosing among flashcards. Chippy consistently matched or beat the best in the business.
The problem, however, may not be so much with experts as us. We are suckers for predictions. We want to know the future so that in some way we can control it or change it. That explains why we rush to palm readers, tarrot card specialists, tea leaf readers, astrologers, crystal ball gazers and what not. Predicting no wonder is roaring business. The successful businessmen are those who are ‘confident, clear and dramatic. The sort who deliver quality sound bites and compelling stories’.
Should we disbelieve experts then? No way. In critical times such as now, we need loads of information and knowledge. They have been of terrific help in preparing us for the pandemic battle. But we must understand, like the book says, ‘Expertise means more knowledge, and more knowledge produces more detail and complication. More detail and complication make it harder to come to a clear and confident answer’. Thus it is likely that more knowledgeable ones stay away from predictions and the more artful with words walk away with general adulation.
PLANETS & ALIGNMENTS
While on the topic of predictions, how can one ignore astrology, the wondrous discipline mapping the future based on the movement of stars and planets invisible to the sundry individual? It may have earned the rather unfortunate tag of pseudo science for turning empirical vagueness into a tool of mass deception, but to be fair to it, the celestial signal of widespread disaster in 2020 found mention in several predictions made towards the end of 2019. It was attributed to the Saturn-Jupiter conjunction, an event which resulted in momentous disruption. The virus was missing, but economic collapse and the possibility of war of global significance did. A similar conjunction took place before World War I, some experts on the subject say.
Of course, astrology doesn’t offer solutions. It cannot, because stars move and form alignments on their own freewill. If that causes catastrophes, we have to grin and bear it.
A piece of advice: Buy that stone to ward off bad times at your own risk.
STARS & LOVELIFE
How is lovelife going to be in 2020? It was only a passing curiosity, like you would check the price of a high-end Porsche or Lamborghini or a helicopter once in a while, and the result was interesting. Distilled from several expert predictions, it went like this: Stop running after money and success and focus on love. It is not difficult to add love and romance to one’s life since Jupiter, the planet of good fortune, is on your side. You are up for something interesting. You are likely to meet an intriguing person. Put in the hard work, a trait of your star sign, you are
likely to have love blooming. Be sensitive and caring, and reap the reward.
Fine, you conclude, not sure whether you should be happy, but did these guys consider the lockdown and distancing? Moreover, if one has to do all the hard work, what are the stars there for? Isn’t Jupiter supposed to make one’s life easy? You start browsing the price of a rocket to the moon.
NEVER OUT OF CIRCULATION
We have probably been a bit harsh on people for trying to tell the future. Our apologies. But they should rest assured that doubters won’t throw them out of circulation ever. They deal with psychological insecurities of people, and their words have magical soothing effect on recipients. A certified counsellor does the same, but in a wee bit different way, and without predictions.
Also Read: Astrologer Bejan Daruwalla Dies Of COVID-19 Complications
