Cyclone ‘Mocha’ May Form Over Bay Around May 9-10; Check What IMD & Other Forecast Models Have To Say

Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around May 7 and it is likely to concentrate into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on May 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Wednesday.

The Met office further said that there is a a good possibility of its intensification while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal. “Details of its path and intensification will be provided after formation of low pressure area. The system is under watch and is being monitored regularly,” it added.

According to Tropical Weather Outlook, IMD GFS model is indicating further intensification of the system into severe cyclonic storm on May 9 over southeast bob and moving nearly north-northeastwards towards eastcentral Bay of Bengal till May 12.

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is indicating indicating further intensification of the system into cyclonic storm on May 9 and severe cyclonic storm on May 10.

NCMRWF Unified model (NCUM), on the other hand, is indicating development of an low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal of Bengal around May 9 with gradual northwestwards movement and intensification into depression on May 10, cycclonic storm on May 11 and severe cyclonic storm on May 12.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is indicating over Southeast Bay of Bengal of Bengal around May 7, depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea around May 9 with gradual north-northeastwards movement and intensification into cyclonic storm around May 10.

All models are unanimously indicating nearly northwards movement, it added.

If the system intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be called ‘Mocha’, a name suggested by Yemen. Mokka is a port city on the Red Sea coast of Yemen.

Notably, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik on Tuesday chaired a high-level meeting to review preparedness. Giving details of preparedness, SRC Satyabrata Sahu said round-the-clock control rooms have been set up after holding discussion with Collectors of 18 districts. As many as 17 NDRF and 20 ODRAF teams have been kept ready for the possible cyclone, he said.