Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic storm is likely to brew in west-central Bay of Bengal 48 hours after the current system in North Andaman sea and its neighbourhood intensifies into a depression on October 22, the India Meteorological department informed on Wednesday.
In its afternoon bulletin, the IMD said, “Yesterday’s cyclonic circulation over north Andaman sea and neighbourhood persisted over the same region extending up to mid Tropospheric levels at 8.30 am on October 19. Under its Influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by October 22 morning over central Bay of Bengal. It is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal during subsequent 48 hours.”
It further said that intense convection lay over the Andaman sea and its neighbourhood has increased during the last 12 hours. “Minimum cloud top temperature is minus 93 degree celsius. Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very Intense convection lay over the south Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea,” the agency said.
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There is a high probability of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) in the next 96 to 120 hours, it added.
The IMD, however, has made no forecast on the intensity, wind speed and likely landfall of the system, which will be named ‘Sitrang’ if it intensifies into a storm.
According to private forecaster Skymet, mid-October and the second half, as such, offer a conducive and favourable environment for cyclogenesis. “Since the weather system will be positioned rather deep in the ocean, it will encounter support of environmental conditions, so essential for sustenance and growth. Its rapid accentuation is anticipated and extended sea travel will further raise the heat potential,” a report said.
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha are more susceptible to direct strikes and ensuing hazardous weather conditions, it added.
Also Read: Post-Monsoon Cyclone To Bring More Rain To Odisha; Clear Picture On Intensity, Landfall By Oct 21-22
Different weather models, however, have been indicating different paths for the possible cyclone.
On Wednesday, the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicated that the possible cyclone may make landfall in Haldibari area of West Bengal on October 25 while the American Global Forecast System (GFS) model showed likely landfall near the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast. These models had suggested north of Balasore and Digha as the possible landfall sites the previous day.
Also Read: Cyclone ‘Sitrang’ Likely To Form In Bay After Oct 22; Know Who Named It & What It Means
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