Fresh Low Pressure Over Bay By Oct 20; Will It Intensify Into Cyclone? Check What IMD & Experts Have To Say

Bhubaneswar: A day after quashing rumours about the possibility of a cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), stating that it was too early to make such predictions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday informed that a low-pressure area may form over the southeast and adjoining central parts of BoB around October 20 with ‘moderate’ chances of cyclogenesis.

According to the MeT office, the low-pressure area is likely to move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal between October 21 and 27.

“There is a likelihood of formation of a cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood around October 17/18 with west-northwestwards movement and further intensification into a low-pressure area by October 20 over the southeast and adjoining central parts of BoB. Further, there is a moderate probability that the low-pressure area would move west-northwestwards and concentrate into a depression over west-central BoBl at the beginning of week 2,” it said.

It further said that NCUM, NEPS and ECMWF are indicating likely intensification of the low-pressure area over BoB into depression during the first half of week 2. The extended range forecast model IMD MME CFS (V2), however, is indicating the west-northwestwards movement of the existing cyclonic circulation over central parts of south BoB and its emergence into eastcentral Andaman Sea during week 2.

“It is also indicating 10-20% cyclogenesis over central and south BoB; and 30-40% cyclogenesis over northeast Andaman Seas during week 2. The ECMF ensemble prediction system is indicating 30-40% probability of cyclogenesis over central and south BoB during the first half of week 2 and a 10-30% probability of cyclogenesis over south Andaman Sea during the middle of week 1 to the middle of week 2,” it added.

Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls also tweeted: “A low can form in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea around midweek and can strengthen into depression or cyclonic storm as it tracks NW late next week & next weekend.”

On Monday, Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on weather and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada, told the media about the possibility of a supercyclone in the Bay of Bengal between October 18 and October 25 based on the US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS).

“A depression is likely to form on October 17, which is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 18,” he was quoted as saying by Business Standard.  The cyclone may make its landfall anywhere between Andhra Pradesh and Bangladesh, Palash said, adding that the system may become a supercyclone.

On Wednesday, IMD’s regional centre, Bhubaneswar, clarified that scientifically specific weather forecasts cannot be made seven days in advance. “We are working round the clock to provide accurate information related to the latest weather conditions. Stay away from rumours,” it tweeted.

Joint Special Relief Commissioner (SRC) also asked people not to spread any information that creates panic among the citizens.

Also Read: Cyclone Likely In Bay By Oct 25? Check What IMD & Odisha Weather Expert Have To Say

Later speaking to the media, IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that there is no forecast for a cyclone in the next 7 days and no threat for Odisha. He further said that the fresh system is likely to move west-northwestward towards the southern part of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. “As per our analysis, there are no chances of intensification of the system into a cyclone,” he said.

Mohapatra said a forecast made seven days in advance is more reliable and accurate and IMD is known for its ‘pinpoint’ accuracy in cyclone prediction. “The prediction is made after analysing several models, which may keep changing. The US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) no longer indicates cyclone in the Bay of Bengal,” he stressed.

Also Read: IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Explains Why There Is No Cyclone Threat For Odisha In Next 7 Days

Former Met Director Sarat Sahu also told Odisha Bytes that predictions are not made based on one weather model. “Anything concrete can be said about the possibility of a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal mid-month once a few other models predict the same and only after October 17,” he added.