New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday confirmed the onset of El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Worryingly for India, the naturally occurring climate phenomenon is likely to strengthen further during the ongoing southwest monsoon season, warned IMD.
The IMD said in its June ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Bulletin that warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have crossed the threshold required for El Nino conditions.
Significantly, the atmosphere has responded to the ocean warming, indicating that the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is now firmly in an El Nino state.
“Currently, El Nino conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season,” IMD said in its bulletin.
As per forecasts generated by the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS), El Nino is likely to intensify as the season progresses.
El Niño conditions disrupt normal wind and rain patterns, altering weather and ecosystems across the globe significantly.
In the current month, sea surface temperatures in central tropical Pacific exceeded the El Nino threshold. The latest three-month average Nio 3.4 index, a key indicator used to monitor El Nino phenomenon, has risen above +0.5°C, marking the official onset of El Nino conditions.
According to IMD, strong positive temperature anomalies are present beneath the ocean surface across large parts of the equatorial Pacific, a signal that warmer waters are likely to continue surfacing and reinforce the event in the next few months.
As per forecasts, positive sea surface temperature anomalies will persist across central Pacific from June to August, and are expected to expand and strengthen across the central and eastern Pacific from July onwards.
The latest model guidance points to moderate to strong El Nino conditions during much of the southwest monsoon season.
However, Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA), which officially declared the onset of El Nino on June 11, highlighted a potential silver lining for India. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could develop around July, and help offset some of the adverse impacts of what could develop into super El Nino on the country’s monsoon rainfall, said JMA.
