The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has for a long time been more noise than substance in Delhi, particularly in the assembly elections. It’s a bit confounding. For a party which performs spectacularly well in parliamentary polls to stay in lower single digits in a 70-member House beats easy comprehension. It has not been in power in Delhi for more than two decades. After three consecutive terms for the Congress since 1998, it has been the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) show till now.
Will it change this time? It’s difficult to predict. But someone familiar with the politics of the capital state would be inclined to give the AAP a better winning possibility. These numbers explain why. It had a vote share of 54 percent in the assembly elections of 2020. Only a year earlier, the BJP had won all seven parliamentary seats in the general elections with a vote share of close to 57 percent. In the general elections of 2014, the BJP has swept all seven seats in Delhi with a vote share of close to 46.5 percent. In the assembly elections held next year, the AAP’s vote share was 54.3 percent and it won 67 seats, and the BJP’s share was 32.4 percent.
The resounding victory of Arvind Kejriwal’s party on both occasions was in the face of the popular appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s mascot and vote magnet. The BJP also played the Hindu-Muslim communal card to the maximum. Both have been critical to the BJP’s electoral success over the last decade. So it’s difficult to extrapolate the results of the Delhi assembly election results from the performance of parties in other polls. Delhi’s voters certainly make sure that they don’t mix up one election with the other.
The BJP would be wary of making it a Kejriwal vs Modi battle once again. The former has won comprehensively earlier. Moreover, the Modi magic has been on the wane of late. It also is unsure of the impact of the victim card being played by the AAP following the incarceration of its top leaders in connection with the alleged liquor scam and the persistent antagonistic stance of the central government towards the Delhi government. It doesn’t help that it has no leader to match Kejriwal’s stature. However, the party would derive confidence from the fact that in 2020, it recorded an increase in vote share in 65 constituencies.
But that may not be enough. After railing against the freebie culture of the AAP for long, the BJP is not only promising no halt to schemes of the ruling party, including free electricity, water, healthcare and education for the poor, but also has added some of its own. For instance, to counter the AAP’s promise of Rs 2100 per woman every month, it is promising Rs 2500. But its earlier criticism of the freebie culture may not have gone down well with the poorer sections. The AAP is making it a campaign talking point that once the BJP is elected, all benefits would stop.
As things stand at this point, not much has changed in the equation between the BJP and the AAP in Delhi. The latter is much better placed. The trouble points for the AAP could be voter fatigue. They might seek change. Also, the unceasing fight between the BJP and Kejriwal’s party may have become a bit tiring for them. In such a scenario, the Congress might gain. The gain for it would mean trouble for the AAP, because the vote bank for both is similar and the voters have nothing particular against the Congress. A shift from AAP’s votes towards the Congress would be good news for the BJP.
This being the situation, it’s silly to make any prediction on Delhi. Let’s wait and watch.
(By arrangement with Perspective Bytes)
