Kolkata: BJP or Trinamul, who will win in Bengal? That is the question doing the rounds. Honestly speaking, nobody, including x-shit polls, can say with any certainty. One will only know for sure once the EVMs reveal their secrets later today.
Sense & Sentiments
But the question no one is asking is what about Bengal itself? Sense says there should be change against corruption, violence and bungling. Advantage BJP. On the other hand, sentiments dictate that BJP is a threat to Bengali culture and cuisine. Advantage Trinamul.
This dilemma between sense (BJP) and sentiments (Trinamul) has divided the electorate in Bengal. Though the state is no stranger to violent political polarizations, be it the Congress-CPM or CPM-Trinamul rivalries, the current conflict comes as a double whammy. The Hindu-Muslim polarization has added fuel to the fire. End result, another partition of Bengal.
From a non-partisan perspective, it looks like a neck-to-neck race, but Trinamul may edge past BJP with a narrow margin.
Modi or Mamata?
According to media reports, social media posts and conversations, there are certain factors against the incumbent government (Mamata) as well as sentiments working against BJP (Modi) coming to power.
Trouble for Trinamul
* Anti-incumbency coupled with general frustration against large-scale corruption and administrative mismanagement.
* Plus, political patronizing of criminals, violence against rivals, extortion, arrogance of power and intimidation have become unbearable, and people genuinely want ‘poribarton’ (change). Though given the years following the 2011 polls, this word sounds like a cruel joke now.
* The consolidation of pro-Hindu votes against the ruling party’s perceived Muslim-appeasement approach is another concern.
* The industrial lobby are favorable towards BJP given the party’s promises of development as against the current lag due to Trinamul’s policies.
* Given Mamata’s confrontationist attitude towards the Centre, many feel that a BJP government in Bengal will help in greater accessibility to Central funds and schemes, touted as ‘double engine sarkar’.
BJP’s SIR-dard
Motivated by the desire to win Bengal at any cost, BJP too faces its own challenges.
* SIR. The exercise has left the people confused and afraid about the future status of their citizenship. Added to this, Bengalis being maligned as Bangladeshis elsewhere in the country has added to the national-identity crisis. In fact, there was a perception doing the rounds that the names of those not voting this time will be struck off citizenship rolls. This was the reason behind the unprecedented surge in voter numbers at polling booths this time. One can say, it was more of an anti-SIR voting.
* The party’s tried-and-tested strategy of religious polarization has not gone down well with a large section of Bengalis, including Hindus, who are liberal by nature.
* ‘Outsider’. BJP is seen as a party of outsiders posing a threat to Bengali Asmita or pride. Plus, the party’s banking on out-of-Bengal leaders like Yogi Adityanath, Hemanta Biswa Sarma, etc. instead of local faces has deepened this impression of the saffron party being anti-Bengali. And BJP’s refusal to project a CM face before the polls has not helped matters.
* ‘Centre vs Mamata’. The timing of SIR, unprecedented deployment of central forces, spurt in ED raids against Trinamul functionaries during the polls and EC’s strict statutes have given the impression that it is more of a Central government vs Mamata fight than that between two political parties. This has boosted Mamata’s image as an iron lady of the opposition.
* Trinamul’s cadre network is far superior to that of BJP, particularly in rural areas. Besides, Mamata’s welfare schemes here are hugely popular.
Battleground Bengal
The question is not who will win Bengal? But will Bengal win in the end? The ground reality is something else.
* Polarization. At present, Bengalis are politically polarized between Trinamul and BJP. Add to it the Hindu vs Muslim divisive mindset. It seems Bengal is losing on this front.
* If Trinamul comes to power, it will continue with its misrule, intimidation and corruption. But if BJP comes to power, will the system change? It’s doubtful.
Politicians patronizing criminals, violence against political rivals, arrogance of power and other ills have been paying rich dividends for ruling parties in Bengal till now, be it Congress, CPM or Trinamul. Question is does BJP have the political guts or will to kill the goose that lays golden eggs. Again, doubtful.
God bless Bengal!
(The article has been authored by Monojit Dasgupta)
