As Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the United States for a second term, Pakistan is bracing for what officials and analysts predict will be a challenging period in bilateral relations. Internal assessments from Islamabad point to several potential roadblocks in diplomatic ties, with concerns mounting over Trump’s foreign policy priorities and key cabinet appointments, none of which really view Pakistan favourably.
According to sources familiar with Pakistan’s diplomatic strategy, the new Trump administration is expected to prioritise its strategic competition with China and strengthen ties with India, leaving little room for Islamabad to manoeuvre. Of particular concern is the appointment of Richard Grenell, a Trump loyalist known for his public criticism of Pakistan. Pakistani officials believe that Grenell, along with other key figures in the administration, will adopt a tougher stance on Pakistan, further straining the already tenuous ties.
Diminishing Influence in Washington
Pakistan’s diplomatic mission in Washington has faced increasing challenges in recent years. Despite efforts to project a positive image during President Joe Biden’s tenure, Islamabad has struggled to secure high-level engagements. Notably, Pakistan is alive to the realisation that throughout his term as President, Joe Biden never held a direct conversation with any Pakistani prime minister. Nor, for that matter, did key officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken visit Pakistan, despite multiple visits to India.
The strained ties were further exacerbated by a senior Biden administration official’s recent comments labelling Pakistan’s long-range missile programme as a potential threat to the US. Of course, Islamabad had rejected these assertions, explaining that its missile program is India-centric. Analysts in Islamabad believe that these concerns may persist or even escalate under the Trump administration.
Pakistan can see the writing on the wall and knows that it must refrain from using the heyday of the alliance during the early years of the Cold War as the baseline because that world no longer exists. More importantly, Pakistan is no longer the same.
Marco Rubio as Secretary of State
Adding to Pakistan’s concerns is the confirmation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State in the Trump 2.0 administration. Rubio, known for his strong advocacy of India-US relations and his tough stance on China, has previously called for sanctions on Pakistan over alleged support for terrorism against India. His confirmation was met with unanimous Senate support, signalling broad bipartisan backing for his policy positions.
Rubio’s past legislative efforts had sought to block US security assistance to Pakistan and enhance India’s status as a key strategic partner. Given this background, Pakistani diplomats anticipate a more challenging environment in Washington, with limited opportunities to advance their interests.
The ‘China-India Lens’
Foreign affairs experts in Islamabad believe that the Trump administration will continue to perceive Pakistan primarily through the “China-India lens,” with Washington’s strategic focus remaining on countering Beijing’s influence in the Asia Pacific region. This approach could marginalise Pakistan’s efforts to strengthen bilateral ties beyond the security domain.
Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, a professor at Quaid-e-Azam University, highlighted the challenge of convincing the Trump administration that Pakistan can contribute positively to US interests without compromising its relationship with China. “We should position ourselves as a valuable partner in addressing non-traditional security threats and regional stability, especially concerning Afghanistan,” Jaspal noted.
Additionally, Pakistani officials worry that the US could use internal political issues to exert pressure on Islamabad. For instance, Trump’s special envoy nominee Richard Grenell has called for the release of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, adding a political dimension to the already complex relationship.
Economic Concerns
A complete break with the US is unthinkable for Pakistan which is struggling with a debt-ridden economy. The country needs outside help, not just from China and the Gulf countries, but also from international financial institutions. Here is the catch – Washington continues to influence international lenders.
Indeed, one of the key areas of concern for Pakistan is the potential impact on economic cooperation. Under the Biden administration, Islamabad secured crucial bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), partly due to US backing. Pakistani officials fear that the Trump administration may adopt a more transactional approach, potentially making future IMF financial assistance contingent on stricter political and strategic conditions.
To navigate this uncertainty, Pakistani experts suggest leveraging the country’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, a key Trump ally. Pakistani media believes that the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, could play a crucial role in mediating favourable terms for Pakistan in Washington.
Diplomatic Strategy Moving Forward
During his campaign, Trump reiterated his intention to reinstate and expand the controversial travel ban that previously targeted several Muslim-majority countries. Reports also indicate that Pakistan could be among the nations included in an expanded list, raising alarms within the government and the Pakistani diaspora in the US.
If implemented, such measures would further strain economic and people-to-people ties, affecting trade, remittances, and educational exchanges. Analysts urge Pakistan to engage proactively with US policymakers to prevent such restrictions from materialising.
Despite the challenges, Pakistani diplomats and foreign policy experts advocate for a pragmatic approach. According to Pakistani media reports, Sherry Rehman, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, has emphasised the need for Islamabad to chart a clear agenda focusing on economic and commercial ties. “Pakistan must assert its strategic interests while actively working to rebuild trust,” Rehman says.
Masood Khan, another former ambassador, stressed the importance of injecting “new energy” into economic cooperation and exploring opportunities beyond traditional security concerns. Masood Khan believes that while Trump’s policies may not be a mere repetition of his previous tenure, Pakistan should remain cautious yet optimistic in finding areas of mutual interest.
As Pakistan braces for Trump’s second term, the road ahead appears fraught with diplomatic and economic challenges. The anticipated policies of the new administration, combined with a tougher stance on China (and a friendly stance on India), present significant hurdles for Islamabad. However, analysts feel that strategic engagement, regional partnerships, and a proactive diplomatic approach could help Pakistan navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.
As former Pakistani ambassador Touqir Hsain said in his article published in the Dawn newspaper, “Any hopes our leadership may have of recapturing the relationship of the past are unlikely to materialise.”
Husain ended his column saying, “We can only hope for the best while preparing for the worst.”
