2020 is turning out to be a horrible year for the country indeed. And it has ‘Made in China’ written all over. First, it was the insidious import from Wuhan, now we have a looming military conflict on the northern border. Neither seems ready to disappear in a hurry.
The torrent of bad news refuses to taper off. For a country yet to get the full measure of the chaos ushered in by the virus, including the enormity of the economic damage from it, the Chinese onslaught along the LAC comes as an additional unwelcome baggage. The timing of the second development couldn’t have been worse.
As is always the case with hostile bilateral standoff between strong nations, we may not see de-escalation anytime soon. From the point of the skirmish at Galwan Valley that claimed 22 Indian lives and unspecified numbers on the Chinese side, things can go south sharply if not handled with a sense of responsibility from both sides. A full-fledged conflagration can only mean debilitating blow to revival efforts post the global health crisis. Funds and attention for the COVID fight would be required to be diverted to the new front, leaving the disease an open field. Leadership in both countries must tread with extreme care now to keep the developments under control.
A good move in the right direction would be not to turn the face-off into a spectator event. Governments tend to complicate matters for themselves when they drag issues ought to be discussed with intellectual clarity and coolness among the educated and informed inside closed chambers to the level of the street. The street responds not with intelligence but with emotion. It seeks instant gratification when the situation requires measured moves. When politicians fan the zingoistic frenzy and bloodlust, they raise expectations too high among the masses. It entails risk. If they fail to meet the expectations then they stand to lose credibility. If they try to meet them, then damage to the country maybe heavy.
The government has to do what it must. Sharp brains — military, diplomatic and political — are at work on the situation. Strategies, short-term, middile-term and long-term, would be at play. So would be tactical considerations on the ground. If the better judgement of experts rules in favour of an escalation of conflict, then it would be so. But before they reach a decision, any attempt to vitiate the atmosphere with war cries, boycott calls can only be counterproductive. Hyperventilating television anchors are already at work, compensating for lack of knowledge with flaming rhetoric, and the usual partners in crime, the social media bullfighters, are furiously active too. Perhaps it is better they wait for the signal from the government. War maybe entertainment for them, an opportunity to accumulate TRP, but not so for soldiers on the ground and the government.
Much more than nationalist egos are at stake here. Hence a check on raw passion is called for. It does not make life easy for the decision-makers.
THE UNEASY TANGO
The Dragon-Elephant tango has been complex over the decades. The uneasy rationship between the most populous countries in the world, are a result of the competition in the economic sphere as well as in geopolitics. India was among the first non-communist countries to recognise the People’s Republic of China in 1950. Yet it did not result in the blooming of bilateral relations between the neighbours. In 1962, the countries went to war. While it has not been followed by a second big one, the ill-defined borders have seen several skirmishes over the years, the Doklam face-off of 2017 and the current one being the latest. China’s closeness to Pakistan has been a permanent irritant in the relationship. The interests of both countries have clashed in the Indian Ocean region too. The former’s expansionist designs in the South China Sea has India crying foul. Strategic interests of both countries are at stake.
The Wuhan virus is not the flashpoint for the recent bout of conflicts as in the case of Sino-US relationship, but India’s growing closeness to the US and thus access to the source of superior technology, particularly in the area of defence, and its move to redraw the map of Jammu and Kashmir. Ladakh and Aksai Chin are the problem areas from the Chinese point of view. COVID-19 landed in the complicated equations after India opted to back US’s resolution demanding a probe into the origin of the virus and political figures went public about the laboratory origin of the novel coronavirus. In the final count, it’s about the clashing points of view and ambitions of powerful neighbouring countries.
THE PROBLEM WITH DECOUPLING
Despite the overall unease in their relationship, cooperation between the countries has been growing in several fields. Particularly in the area of trade. China is one of India’s leading business partners with bilateral trade to the tune of around $92 billion (figures for 2019). It has also been a major source of Foreign Direct Investment in the country in recent years. The investment are in critical areas such as railways, pharmaceuticals, electronics, automobile, services, electrical equipment among others. The Chinese have a big footprint on the start-up sector too — Paytm, Swiggy, Zomato, Big Basket, Byju, Ola services, Oyo, Flipkart, Snapdeal and Policy Bazaar are among the beneficiaries.
The decoupling of trade relations won’t be without consequences for both India and China. The Chinese investment created not only jobs but also introduced technological expertise and best practices to Indian industries. China stands to lose a big market for its goods. Struggling with global backlash over COVID-19, the country may find it difficult to revive its economy without steady markets.
PRAGMATISM ABOVE EMOTIONS
Self-reliance is a great idea. However, it must not be driven by emotions and media frenzy. It takes time for economies to build capacity, create markets. It is a long process and it involves cold pragmatic thinking. If we are really serious about pushing China out, then planting a full stop now is not the solution. It has to be a gradual move. Of course, we must assess whether we are in a position to manage the disruption due to the pandemic and the economic impact of shutting off China at the same time.
Also Read: Not Just Mobile Phones, India Imports Over 80 Per Cent Raw Materials For Medicines From China
